Malcolm Gladwell

Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point, Blink, and Outliers, discussed the danger of overconfidence during Catalyst Conference’s second session. Here is what he said:

People who were experts still made mistakes, which led to the current financial crises.

If you have more information, do you get better at making a prediction? But a research study showed that it doesn’t really make a difference. However, with more information people’s confidence in their predictions improves.

Too much confidence in a guess is called miscalculation.

Incompetence irritates me, but overconfidence scares me. Incompetent people rarely have the opportunities to make mistakes that greatly affect things. But overconfident leaders and experts have the dangerous ability to create disaster.

In 1863 during the Civil War in Virginia, the Union army was in incredibly poor shape. And Lincoln in Washington was becoming increasingly worried. Fighting Joe Hooker came and happened to know more about Confederate General Lee than anyone. Hooker devised a brilliant battle plan by distributing his army in thirds and surrounding Lee’s army. Lee was significantly outnumbered 2 to 1. Hooker said that even God Almighty couldn’t prevent them from victory. What happened next was the Battle of Chancellorsville. Hooker expected Lee to retreat, became trapped by his confidence, and did not plan for anything else. In fact, the Union army lowered their guard; Lee attached, and Hooker’s army ran away only to suffer one of the worst defeats of the war.

We think we need daring and bold decision making from our leaders in time of crisis. But we don’t. We need humility.

QUESTION: What are the warning signs for leaders being to overconfident?

When you stop listening to those around you. You cut yourself off from others.

QUESTION: What do you say to the church leader who has resisted accountability because of fear?

When a leader can no longer do everything all by himself, you have to change. When your growth reaches a certain point, you have to change. Leadership has to become more collective.